On Estimation, part 1: What Estimates Are Not

The most controversial team process discussion I always have is the one around estimation.

Let’s try and unpack some of the concerns, and introduce a few approaches and techniques for estimating work and meeting dates.

1. Estimates are not commitments

Here’s a story that might sound familiar: your manager comes out of a meeting with senior leadership. “We want to prioritize the new feature. It’s all decided. When can you have it done?”, they ask. “Well… Based on prior experience and some random guessing, if the whole team switches to that project, it’s going to take no less than three weeks to have a prototype”, you tentatively reply.

“Fantastic! Three weeks it is then!”

Ever been there? I know I have. Estimations, however, are just that: an estimate of roughly when something could be achieved. They are not commitments to a specific outcome on a specific date.

2. Estimates are not predictions

Look, I love my job. But I promise you that if I could predict the future, I would be sitting on a yacht sipping a colorful drink in between scuba diving sessions in the Indian Ocean.

Unfortunately, I can’t predict the future. So can’t you, or your boss. Therefore, by definition (remeber, they’re estimates!), your estimates will be somewhat off.

3. Estimates are not immutable

This is kind of the natural consequence of the previous two points, but it’s important.

The main reason why you need estimates is to be able to have a clue about what can be done by when. That’s really it. I don’t care about whether a specific tasks takes you three days and your buddy one and a half. All I need to know is, how confident are we that we’ll get shit done by when.

The rule here is, “minimize surprises”. If we agreed the project will finish by next Thursday, based on your estimate, and something changed (e.g. because we discovered something new, or for whatever reason), I want to know, and I want to know what the new estimate is.

There is no shame in changing your estimate, as long as it’s done as soon as possible, and there is a clear explanation of what changed.

So, that’s a few things estimates are not. But then, what are estimates actually? And how can you make some with some hope of accuracy?

Stay tuned!